Editor's note: Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda announced his abrupt resignation on Monday evening, or September 1. In a short span of time, two Japanese prime ministers left the political arena with striking similarities after less than a year in office. One of them is Shinzo Abe who represents the younger, militant faction in the Liberal Democratic Party , and the other, Yasuo Fukuda, is generally known as one of the senor moderates within LDP. But both have failed eventually to tackle domestic political, economic problems with an ensuing drop in their support rate.
With regard to the timing and causes for Fukuda's unexpected resignation and future trends in Japan's political scene, People Daily's desk editors Li Wenyun and Cao Pengcheng have conferred with PD resident reporter in Japan Yu Qing, Professor Liu Jiangyong at the Institute of International Studies of elite Tsinghua University in Beijing, and Wu Jinan, executive vice-president of the Society for Japanese Studies in Shanghai to analyze and explore into the issue.
The reason and timing of Fukuda's resignation need careful study
Desk editor: LDP has reportedly suffered from "symptoms of public confidence deficiency", and the two prime ministers who resigned one after other have contracted this illness and are faced with such questions: When the negative legacy of the Junichiro Koizumi era became evident, how to value the reform of the past? When Japan's old economic structure is changed, how to establish the new set-up? LDP did not answer these questions timely, and the Democratic Party of Japan , the country's largest opposition party, also did find answers to these questions. But the latter has been bent on making trouble for LDP, so can it be said that it is very hard for the Fukuda cabinet to hang on as his government fails to execute orders and so the efficiency of both Houses is extremely low.
Liu Jiangyong: Fukuda has in fact intended to resign long ago, and he only wants to seek an opportune time relatively favorable to the ruling party. First of all, he prefers quitting at this time so as to avoid the "power vacuum". If he chooses mid September when Congress is in session, he has to bear more responsibility as DPJ would use the Upper House to go on making trouble for LDP, and the Lower House, or the House of Representatives, would be under greater pressure.
Besides, Fukuda has no desire to hold on to his post, as he has completed his main political, diplomatic programs for this year. He hosted the G8 Hokkaido summit in Toyako in June, attended the opening ceremony of Beijing's 2008 Olympics, and participated in huge peace rally held in Hiroshima to remember the first victims of Atomic bombs, etc.
Yu Qing: Fukuda's resignation has both similarities and differences with that of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In term of similarities, both have been troubled by domestic issues and both face rivals in Congress who want to act defiantly and independently. The direct cause for their resignation is different nevertheless. Abe, in his 50s, left primarily for health reasons, and Fukuda, 72, steps down as he has been beset for sluggish support rate.
Abe, too, was troubled by low support rate in the latter period of his office. At present, however, the support rate for Fukuda's cabinet is low and the support rate for the Fukuda cabinet is also on decline inside the coalition of the ruling LDP. First, there has been a growing voice inside LDP to question Fukuda's leading ability. When the general election is in sight, the defeat for LDP is certain if he lead the ruling party in the race. Besides, New Komeito party, the coalition partner of LDP, began to "keep a certain distance" with the Fukuda cabinet from two months ago and, on such issues as negative annuity, medicare and social security, it no longer follow the LDP's advices.
Variables are still in brewing in Japan's political scene
Desk editor: Japan cannot stand aloof its domestic and external situation. There are numerous problems with negative annuity, medicare and social security plus recent soaring prices at home and, externally, its territorial dispute with the Republic of Korea is difficult to resolve and it has to re-establish or adjust its relations with the United States and Russia. General public and media in Japan hope there will be a powerful authority to lead them to tide over a crisis. The new prime minister and LDP as a whole would likely face an even greater pressure in such a situation. Then, will the next variable is in brewing in Japan's politics?
Wu Jinan: two "captains" have quit successively and forsaken the LDP "vessel" within one year, and people cannot but doubt its prospects.
Fukuda succeeded former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last September to become a leader of the ruling LDP and subsequently the prime minister. LDP met with unprecedented difficulties due to the control of both Houses by the ruling party and the opposition. The new "Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Act was passed in the Lower House but got agrounded at the Upper House, or the national diet. So Fukuda resorted to a two-third majority in the House of Representatives to re-vote and adopt the relevant codes, and thus harmed his image as a government leader. Moreover, he was hesitant and irresolute while coping with pension record misspeaks, so the support rate of his cabinet had dropped beyond the "warning line" from more than 50 percent at beginning. With a drastic drop in his cohensiveness within LDP, he finally stepped down and his resignation also heralds the troubled times ahead in Japan's political scene.
Yu Qing: The growing centrifugal tendency from Fukuda in the coalition is a leading pressure for Fukuda to quit. He thought the support rate for his cabinet would upgrade with the hosting of G8 summit, but turned disappointed as his hopes were dashed. Ordinary Japanese are only concerned about rising prices, social security, income increase and other topics relating closely to people's livelihoods. To view from this angle, a sustained rise in consumer goods prices is also a contributing factor to upheavals in Japan's political situation.
Still a limited room for Japan's new PM to maneuver
Desk editor: The revamping of the ruling party is still confined to the Party itself at present, and it is difficult to make a major policy decision to dissolve the House of Representatives and return politics to the people. So, the political scene remains in turmoil of political struggles between the two parties. In such circumstances, who is more likely to come to the fore as the new prime minister, and what challenges he is expected to meet?
Wu Jinan: Fukuda appointed Taro Aso, 67, as the LDP secretary general in a cabinet reshuffle a month ago, with an implication that he was ready to step aside. Upon Fukuda's announcement of his resignation, Aso announced his candidacy, saying in a strong statement that he would run for the LDP chief. At present, Japanese statesmen with strength to vie for this position are, among others, former defense minister Yuriko Koike, incumbent chief cabinet secretary Nobutaka Machimura, Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Tanigaki Sadakazu. In comparison, Taro Aso is likely to win the most votes as he is populous and good at winning over voters, but the question is that he also has a lot of old foes inside LDP.
Liu Jiangyong: The application to the candidacy for the new LDP chief is reportedly due to finish before September 10 and the new LDP president will be elected around Sept. 21 and will become the new prime minister through confidence vote at the House of Representatives. To date, Taro Aso is prepared to stand for vote and is capable of winning more ballots. Furthermore, he is incumbent LDP secretary general in charge of personnel and elections. However, whoever is elected the Japanese new prime minister, it is not a funny game, as it implies the reorganization of politics in Japan.
Desk editor: Whoever will be Japan's new prime minister, it seems that he will be confronted with quite a few thorny problems.
Liu Jiangyong: The toughest problem rests with the imminent transitional Congress. The Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Act and Japan's supply of fuel to U.S. and other warships in the Indian Ocean are now a major political issue, whose prospects for the ratification is remote in the transitional Congress. Moreover, it is also hard to raise the new prime minister's support rate since he has to pluck up the confidence of his nationals economically.
The new prime minister should also attach importance to continuity in the domestic and foreign policies. Japan in years ahead has to face a range of new challenges, and particularly in the diplomatic fields to stabilize Japan-China ties, solve the Japan-ROK island dispute, and to cope with new variables in the Korea Peninsula nuclear issue and the U.S. presidential election.
Wu Jinan: the Democratic Party of Japan , the country's largest opposition party, triumphed and claimed control of the Upper House and it had all along looked forward to seizing the power. The party's current representative, Ichiro Ozawa, is good at waging election campaigns and knows very well how to hit the "soft rib" of the LDP. There are evidences that the ruling LDP and the opposition will wage a decisive battle in the transitional Congress in the fall.
By People's Daily Online
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